February
02, 2007
Pakistan: The Shifting Political
Scenario
The setback to the Bush administration following
the mid-term elections, is translating into a setback
for the Musharraf regime also. A clear indication
of this became available in a new provision included
in the proposed legislation in the US Congress to
implement the recommendations of the 9/11 Commission.
The proposed Act has already been endorsed by the
House and is likely to be done so early by the Senate.
According to a January 24 dispatch of Dawn’s
Washington correspondent, the feelings in the Congress
towards Pakistan were no longer as warm and friendly
as they had earlier been. He has quoted a Congressional
aide as saying that the proposed legislation “shows
the general mood in both chambers, which is not
very favorable to Pakistan”.
The section on Pakistan in the Act lays down several
policy objectives including free and fair elections
in the current year, and the securing of borders
to “prevent movement of militants and terrorists
into other countries”.
Aspersions on the sincerity of the Musharraf regime
in dealing decisively with the Talibon-breeding
centers on his side of the Pak-Afghan border, have
erupted now into the open with the presentation
of this very first legislation in the Congress that
makes military assistance to Pakistan conditional
upon the certification by the President that Islamabad
had been taking all steps to “prevent Tailban
from operating in areas under its sovereign control,
including the cities of Quetta and Chaman”.
President Karzai of Afghanistan had cast such aspersions
earlier. Pakistan had rejected them as subterfuges
to divert attention from the failures of his government
to handle effectively the resurgence of Taliban
in Afghanistan owing to the wide-ranging corruption
of warlords and their rampant abuses of power. The
writ of Karzai government was virtually confined
to Kabul. Some cynics had even called him the “Mayor
of Kabul”.
The Taliban phenomenon was indigenous to Afghanistan
and Pakistan had taken tough measures against its
breeding on its territory. Hundreds of check posts
had been set up along the border with Afghanistan
to stop militants’ cross border traffic. This
claim was unacceptable to Afghanistan which claimed
that Pakistan’s elite secret service agency,
the ISI, was covertly supporting the Taliban. Pakistan’s
aerial bombardments of suspected Taliban training
centers in border areas, in which a good number
of Afghan, foreign and Pakistani militants were
killed, were conveniently ignored by Afghan leadership.
President Musharraf has called Afghanistan’s
allegations “preposterous”. Al Qaeda
leader, Ayman Al-Zawahri, has issued a call to his
followers to assassinate Musharraf. Three attempts
on his life have already been made but he escaped
by sheer good luck. He has given a graphic account
of these attacks in his book “In The Line
of Fire”
Over 600 Pakistani troops had been killed in encounters
with the Taliban extremists, Musharraf pointed out.
His troops had arrested some 700 Al Qaeda and Taliban
militants in Pakistan, including a good portion
of the leadership of both groups. . Afghanistan,
on the other hand, had failed to arrest even a single
member of these groups.
Musharraf has undoubtedly handled the situation
adroitly. For, in Pakistan and in the other Muslim
countries there is a groundswell of anti-American
feelings because of America’s bias over the
Palestine issue, its invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan,
its policies causing the emergence of sectarianism
in areas of Middle East, its obnoxious treatment
of prisoners in Guantenamo Bay and other detention
centers, and its derogation of militants as “Islamic-fascists”.
The combined Islamic parties of Pakistan, the MMA,
which has a substantial representation in Pakistan’s
parliament, is already seething with anger over
the pro-American policies of President Musharraf.
They have been highly critical of his policies in
dealing with the Islamists of the country. Yet,
the MMA has not yet been able to launch a credible
agitation against the government despite repeated
threats to do so. Nor have the MMA members carried
out their threat to resign from the Assemblies.
The two major opposition parties – the PPP
and PML (N) - haven’t yet been able to arrive
at a decision to call an All Parties Conference
to devise a concerted course of action to do away
with the military rule in the country. How to bell
the cat, is their major dilemma. Only the PPP has
grass root level presence in the country. The PML
(N) and many other parties have mainly drawing-room
existence and are dominated by feudal aristocracy.
Apparently, President Musharraf and his party, the
PML (Q), are secure in their positions. But, the
real threat lies in the minds of the vast majority
of the people of the country. The economy has recorded
laudable growth rates under the Musharraf watch.
But, the fruits haven’t filtered down yet
to the level of the common man. He has been affected
adversely from the expansion of the economy leading
to the concentration of wealth in the hands of the
upper strata, and erosion of the purchasing power
of the poor because of inflation.
Musharraf has been in the seat of power for some
seven years -too short a period from his perspective,
but too long for the ambitious brass waiting in
the wings to step into his shoes.
Although over 600 military officers are now manning
civilian jobs, including that of the vice-chancellors
of universities, and almost all officers in uniform
have benefited from land allotments and other perks,
their acquisitive instincts are best served in the
existing political and administrative milieu. But,
the pendulum has swung to the side of a civilian
rule. The legislation, already endorsed by the US
House of Reps and likely to be approved soon by
the Senate calls for elections in Pakistan in 2007.
The Musharraf regime too stands committed to hold
them on schedule this year.
Since the country has not yet established a tradition
of smooth transfer of power, the events of the summer
of 1977 are likely to be repeated. History will
repeat itself. The country may be sucked into a
severe turmoil.
President Musharraf’s leadership qualities
will be on test soon. Would he be able to keep his
cool under strong pressures, adopt measures to avoid
a turmoil, manage a smooth transfer of power to
an elected government, and above all else, satisfy
the US demand for a more active role in combating
the Taliban? One hopes so. arifhussaini@hotmail.com
January 26, 2007
