By Dr. Nayyer Ali

 

Deal, No Deal, or Many Deals

September 07, 2007

The rapidly changing political situation in Pakistan took another turn when the Supreme Court granted Nawaz Sharif’s petition to revoke his exile status. According to the court, he is free to return to Pakistan at his choosing. However, a number of legal cases against him would likely result in his arrest upon return, so he is not home free as of yet.
This does cloud the upcoming election picture even more, and makes Musharraf’s calculations even tougher. Clearly he has no friends at the Supreme Court, and his hope of serving another term as President and Chief of Army Staff simultaneously is likely to be dashed against the emboldened and independent Supreme Court. So Musharraf and his team are looking to make a “deal” that will allow him to retain significant power in the next government. Conversely, many liberal critics of Musharraf have been prodding him to come to an understanding with the PPP and PML-N, and allow Bhutto and/or Sharif to come back unrestricted to run in the election. These pressures, combined with the ambitions of both Bhutto and Sharif to return to politics, are pushing the players to make a “deal” that will allow civilian democracy to strengthen in Pakistan.
But in reality, Pakistan’s politics needs three distinct deals. The first, and most important, is a “deal” between all the major political parties in Pakistan to reshape the constitutional framework of the government. There needs to be several very important changes that will require constitutional amendments. First is a change to proportional representation rather than first past the post system for electing MNAs. Currently, whoever wins the most votes in each district wins the seat, even if that person only gets 25% of the vote. Given Pakistan’s highly fragmented politics (there are over 60 political parties), a single party that gets 30% of the vote in each district will win a landslide in the National Assembly. This happened in the 1997 election when Nawaz Sharif won over a 2/3 majority while only getting 35% of the cast votes. He used that majority to make whimsical changes to the Constitution. Second, all major offices should have 10-year term limits, with the clock starting fresh now. This includes Prime Minister and President. Third, either the President must be returned to a ceremonial post, or the office should be directly elected by the people, otherwise Pakistan cannot really be a democracy. Fourth, the ban on “floor-crossing”, which required every MNA to vote only as instructed by the leader of their party and makes a mockery of democracy, must be removed. Finally, the method by which the Constitution is amended must be made much more difficult and deliberate. The addition of reserved seats for women and the degree requirement for MNAs should be retained.
The second deal is between the army as an institution and the politicians. There needs to be an understanding by which the army submits to civilian rule, while the civilians reassure the army that they will not be punished or gutted as an institution, and that their legitimate input in foreign policy, relations with India and the US, and domestic security will be solicited and respected. Musharraf obviously must play a role in this deal.
Finally, there needs to be a deal between Musharraf and Bhutto/Sharif. This deal needs two elements. First is the terms and conditions by which Musharraf would pardon both of them for previous crimes and thereby release them from the cloud of corruption cases that he uses to threaten them with arrest. This deal should also clarify the mechanisms by which we can ensure a free and fair election. The second element is a specific political deal by which Musharraf retains the Presidency, while Bhutto becomes Prime Minister and shares power. This Musharraf/Bhutto deal actually should not be entered into before the election. The parameters of this deal should be negotiated on the basis of the relative electoral performances of Musharraf and Bhutto supporters. Only when the size of each party in the next National Assembly is known can the relative balance of power-sharing between Musharraf and Bhutto really be settled. In fact, it would likely be a major error for Benazir to be seen as enabling Musharraf to retain power at this stage. It will cost her votes, and would allow her opponents to attack her for being a Musharraf stooge.
Pakistan is reaching a critical stage in its political development. For the first time we have seen the real pillars of democracy asserting themselves, namely the judiciary and the press. If they continue to do their part, the future looks bright. But democracy needs more than that. A Musharraf/Bhutto deal is only the final step in the transition. Several other critical deals need to be made first. Comments can reach me at Nali@socal.rr.com

 

 

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