By Dr. Nayyer Ali

October 12, 2007

Will Musharraf Wriggle Through?

Facing the most complex and severe challenge to his rule over Pakistan, Musharraf has defied pundits’ expectations by coming through the recent political turmoil essentially intact.
A month ago, Musharraf had lost a bruising battle with the Supreme Court, was being openly challenged by Nawaz Sharif and the smaller political parties, and was desperately trying to work out a deal with Benazir Bhutto. His chance of getting another term as Pakistani President seemed to be hanging by a thread as civil society and the media were anticipating (hoping for?) a political earthquake.
But in the last four weeks, things have turned in Musharraf’s favor sharply. First came the confrontation with Nawaz Sharif as he attempted to jumpstart a revolution by returning to Pakistan. This ended in abject failure as the people of Pakistan did not seem too excited at the prospect of the return of Nawaz. His lame assertion that he never made a deal with Musharraf to leave the country did not help his credibility with Pakistanis. As there was no people power on his behalf, the government found it rather easy to dispose of his bid. Nawaz was offered a jail cell and a day in court in Pakistan on the previous corruption charges, or a one-way ticket back to Saudi. Predictably, Nawaz was too used to comfort to spend any time in Musharraf’s jail, and headed back to Jeddah. This time, the Saudis have decided to make him abide by his agreement and have kept him incommunicado.
The second step was his decision to publicly announce that he will doff the uniform if reelected President. While this was mocked as essentially “extortion” on the part of Musharraf, the critics have it all wrong. There is a certain faction of idealists who hate Musharraf and simply cannot abide an evolutionary transition to civilian rule that includes him. The most important thing for a return to Pakistani democracy is not clemency for Benazir and Nawaz, but getting Musharraf out of uniform and making him a civilian President whose authority and power is derived from the Constitution and not the military. If giving him another five years is the price to be paid for this, it is far preferable than an attempted revolution and the inherent chaos and destruction that would bring. Musharraf has promised to doff the uniform in the past, but this public commitment carries much more weight, and he will have little chance of reneging on the bargain.
The third step was the implicit acceptance of Musharraf’s offer by the Supreme Court. The Court ruled by a 6 to 3 margin in favor of Musharraf running for reelection to the Presidency while in his uniform. Several challenges were made to this, and according to the letter of the Constitution the challenges were quite valid. But the Court acted with wisdom and the national interest in view and not just the narrow letter of the law. If the Court had prohibited Musharraf’s candidacy, this would have been tantamount to an all-out war between the Court and the politicians on one side and the army on the other. The consequences of that war could not be good for the country. Better to give Musharraf his second term in exchange for ending his military service.
So where do we go from here? With Musharraf reelected by the current Parliament, his position will not be threatened by a less friendly incoming Parliament. Therefore, his need to massively rig the forthcoming election has been greatly diminished. He will however prefer to have a Parliament that is not totally hostile to him. As such he probably would like to see a Parliament dominated by PML-Q, PPP, and MQM, with the MMA and PML-N weakened. I expect the playing field to be tilted in favor of such an outcome.
Nawaz acted too hastily, and his future in Pakistani politics looks very bleak. Benazir also has been weakened, as Musharraf no longer needs her to be reelected President. However, he might find her to be a useful coalition partner, and if the PPP ends up the biggest party in Parliament, a pardon for Benazir may come about. But at this point, in contrast to three weeks ago, it is Musharraf with the upper hand. On the other hand, the PPP now can campaign without the stigma of providing Musharraf a bargain.
Pakistan’s transition to democracy should be done gradually and in a sustainable manner. This summer has seen major progress on the independence of the judiciary and freedom of the press, two key pillars of democracy. The next steps are getting the President out of uniform, and holding relatively clean elections. After that there need to be significant constitutional reforms. But the main point is that Pakistan needs evolution, not revolution. Revolutions are much too destructive and unpredictable. They should be avoided at all costs. Comments can reach me at Nali@socal.rr.com

 

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