By Dr. Nayyer Ali

November 15, 2007

What a Mess!

Pervez Musharraf has made a horrible mess of the political situation in Pakistan by his desperate declaration of a state of emergency. This second coup, in essence conducted against the very system he set up, has terribly damaged his credibility and standing both in Pakistan and throughout the world. Why did he do this?
The short answer is that the Chief Justice of Pakistan, who won a bruising battle with Musharraf last spring, was poised to undo the solution that Musharraf had worked out for the politics of Pakistan going forward. Musharraf had agreed to a complex deal with Benazir Bhutto which involved Bhutto’s tacit support of Musharraf’s reelection to another five years as Pakistan’s President by the current National Assembly, and in return he pardoned Bhutto, allowed her back into politics, and promised to doff his uniform once the deal was sealed. And if the PPP won the upcoming election, Benazir would get another bite at the apple and be the Prime Minister again.
Although Benazir was fine with this arrangement, many other players in Pakistan were not, chief among them Nawaz Sharif, who as another former Prime Minister wanted to be back into the system too. Sharif had been in exile since Musharraf deposed him and then deported him in 2000. His attempt to return to Pakistan in September was aborted when we was forced onto a plane bound for Saudi after landing in Islamabad. Nawaz supporters turned to the Supreme Court, asking for a contempt of court ruling against Shaukat Aziz for deporting Sharif after the Court had validated his right to return. They also filed a petition to declare illegal Musharraf’s reelection as President and to disqualify him on constitutional grounds from holding the office again.
The Supreme Court then held Pakistan’s political stability and future in its hands. It could comply with the letter of the law, which would have resulted in rulings against Musharraf on both counts, or it could look at the bigger picture of facilitating Pakistan’s democratic transition. In the long run, the most important political step to accomplish this year was to get Musharraf out of uniform and make him rule as a civilian while returning the military hierarchy back to its proper role in the country. For a nation and a court which has rarely acted with extreme integrity, to pick this moment to flex its moral muscles was ill-judged. Apparently, the Supreme Court was going to rule against Musharraf and void his Presidency. This was picked up by the intelligence services through wiretapping of the Chief Justice (everyone has plenty of mud on their hands), and left Musharraf with few good options. His preferred solution was now in ruins. He could either accept the Court’s ruling and fade away into the sunset, or he could fight back with the real power at his disposal. The Supreme Court had to be either incredibly naïve or power-drunk to not consider what was going to be the outcome of their decision.
Musharraf chose a pre-emptive strike, declaring the emergency with the primary purpose to get rid of the troublesome judges. At this writing 9 Supreme Court justices and about 45 high court justices have been dismissed. This all-out war against the independence of the judiciary has played terribly both in the country and abroad. The attempt to stifle the flow of criticism and information by shuttering the private TV channels has done more harm than good to his position.
Can Musharraf survive this round of turmoil? It is possible, but things will have to break his way. The dissent cannot spread to average Punjabis and Karachiites. He must reestablish his bona fides with the liberal intellectuals by convincingly turning against the terrorists and extremists that have been destabilizing the country rather than tolerating them. And he will have to reinstate the evicted judges and allow free elections under a caretaker government. He will need an understanding with the judiciary that his reelection to another five years as President will stand in exchange for this package. But it might be too late to iron out such a deal.
If the business community becomes convinced that Musharraf is more harm than good at this point, or if the senior Army brass think that too much negative sentiment toward the military is being generated by Musharraf, then his days in power may come to an end.
Pakistan still needs another 5-10 years to swell the middle-class to a size that will dominate politics. Until then the venal and corrupt politicians of the feudal system will still hold the upper hand, which makes the future without Musharraf a true leap into the dark. Comments can reach me at Nali@socal.rr.com.

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