February 04 , 2011
The Wind of Change Threatening Authoritarian Regimes
The wind of change that rose in Tunisia and blew off the coercive regime of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali forcing him in mid-January to seek refuge in Saudi Arabia is, at the time of writing, shaking from its roots the hold of Hosni Mubarak, 82, the authoritarian ruler of Egypt for the past 30 years.
The uprisings in both countries were revolutionary in nature, in that they deviated totally from the traditional patterns in such developments. There was no political leader or party at the helm of the massive agitations: the youth in both nations used the Internet facilities in exchanging messages, developing consensus and organizing street demonstrations.
The root causes were almost identical: spiraling cost of living, high unemployment rates particularly among the educated, corruption and self-aggrandizement of the ruling elites and their indifference towards the plight of the common man, mismanagement, and suppression of dissent. Matter of fact, these ailments afflict all Arab countries of North Africa – Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco - Arab dynasties of the Middle East and several other Muslim countries, including Pakistan.
The ruling autocrats have, generally speaking, shamelessly looted public exchequers, promoted corruption as a way of life, and the aging among them planned to bequeath power to their sons. Any voice of dissent was an anathema to them to be ruthlessly crushed by the state power. As President Obama has recently remarked, “Suppressing ideas never succeeds in making them go away”.
The pent-up frustration, made bitterer by growing unemployment and high cost of living, erupted into street protests culminating into a regime change in Tunisia. It was a real revolution, not a euphemism for a coup.
Most of the rulers, now under attack, have been blatantly pro-West. But, no foreign involvement in the agitations has been mentioned by any quarter. The Western media has, however, apprehended the possibility of the Islamic extremists taking advantage of the upheavals and sneaking into seats of power. The US leadership’s advice to the rulers, in the words of Obama has been, “Turn the moment of volatility into a moment of promise”. The Secretary of State mentioned unequivocally US sympathy for the demands of the protesters. The US has been publicly counseling reform and an end to the use of force.
It would be appropriate here to take a synoptic view of the situation in the concerned countries.
EGYPT : Although Tunisia (pop: 10.2 m) is the key catalyst in the wave of protests; Egypt (pop: 80 m) is the key state in the region. Being the most populous Arab state, it helps determine the thrust of Arab policies towards Israel, Iran and the West. It helps develop consensus on issues concerning the Arab world.
In the face of the widespread demonstrations against his government, President Hosni Mubarak has sacked his cabinet, announced a new government, and certain reforms in line with the demands of the people, but is using his military might to crush the street demonstrations. Such measures have proved counter-productive and have hardened the voice of protest.
The demonstrators have not rallied around El Baradei, veteran Egyptian diplomat, Nobel Laureate, and UN’s chief nuclear watchman till recently. He arrived in Cairo from his sojourn in Europe to take the lead of the uprising and has added his voice to that of the protestors asking Hosni Mubarak to exit. The wind of change is likely to pluck off Mubarak. Its repercussions will be, as seen by a Middle East analyst at Woodrow Wilson Center, Washington, as follows:
For Arab autocrats, it would signify the writing on the wall in a far more dramatic way than the fall of Ben Ali regime in Tunisia;
For Arab protestors, it would be a great boost, fueling the idea that the region has entered a new era of ‘people power’;
It would deal a blow to an already enfeebled Middle East peace process. Egypt was the first Arab state to sign a peace treaty with Israel in 1970s;
It would affect business confidence, regionally and even globally, especially if oil prices shot up;
It might breakdown stability and give rise to extremism. The Muslim Brotherhood that has already won majority in the parliament has joined the protests.
Although Mr. Mubarak has a powerful security apparatus that is well equipped to quash dissent, he has been at the helm of the state for 30 long years, and the youth carry the perception that he has not much to show in terms of national welfare, and that he is serving alien interests.
If the time for the idea of change has already come, no army will be strong enough, as cautioned by Victor Hugo, to thwart it. Evidently, the time has come in Egypt.
YEMEN : It is the Arab World’s most impoverished nation with over half of the people living at less than $2 a day. Youths and opposition groups have taken to the street for several days past demanding the resignation of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who has been in power for nearly 32 years. To defuse the unrest, he has announced that he had ordered income tax to be halved and the prices of basic commodities to be controlled. Also, he has announced that he has no intention of handing over power to his son, as widely rumored. He has deployed riot police and armed men in uniform in key areas. The agitation continues.
ALGERIA : An immediate neighbor of Tunisia, young people in this country too appeared in the streets, despite a ban on public demonstrations in the capital. Like in Tunisia, the uprising has been triggered by economic grievances, unemployment and sharp increases in food prices. Some cases of self-immolation have also been reported. Algeria has considerable wealth from gas and oil exports. To calm down the demonstrators, huge public spending programs have been announced. But the protests continue.
LIBYA : President Muammar Gadaffi reacted sharply to the overthrow of Ben Ali of Tunisia, reflecting his fear of the domino effect on his country. After 41 years in power, he is the longest ruling leader in Africa and the Middle East, also one of the most autocratic. Protest of any kind is strictly prohibited, yet reports of unrest and demonstrations in al-Bayda did appear in a section of the media. Libya has a much smaller population and enormous oil wealth. Objective conditions do not press for continued protests.
JORDAN : Thousands of people staged protests in the kingdom against rising food prices and unemployment. The government has slashed food and fuel prices. There is considerable support for the monarchy in the country. King Abdullah has thus escaped the wrath of the protesters.
MOROCCO : Like Tunisia, Morocco too has been facing economic problems and allegations of corruption in ruling circles. But, Morocco allows some freedom of expression, softening the voice of protest. The royal family’s unsavory involvement in business affairs and the appalling greed of the king’s cronies, keep the fire of discontent burning. It could erupt in a nation-wide uprising at any time.
PAKISTAN : In respect of corruption, economic woes, rampant crime, absence of law and order and reasonable governance, Pakistan is today at the bottom rung. The opposition, abdicating its conventional role, has donned the mantle of “friendly opposition”, leaving its role to the media. It is in power in the biggest province – Punjab.
The ruling elites are impervious to the miseries of the people at large. The latter’s living conditions have gone from bad to worse in recent years; many are worse off than the people in several of the above-mentioned countries that are going through convulsions for a better deal.
Perhaps, the time for an uprising by the common folks of Pakistan against the misdeeds of the ruling oligarchy has not yet come. Several private TV channels are projecting those misdeeds to create an awakening. Once the downtrodden people take to the streets, there would be no stopping their march to their objectives. The current turmoil in the Arab lands may serve as a catalyst for an upheaval in Pakistan.
- arifhussaini@hotmail.com
