February 11, 2011

Egypt Insurgency Stirs Soul of Arab World

 

The spark of Tunisian uprising lit the fire of insurrection in Egypt , which is now stirring the soul of the Arab world. The ensuing cataclysms might cause the disgraceful fall of several authoritarian rulers.

President Obama has spoken twice in the past few days to Hosni Mubarak advising him to quit his post making room for an interim government and a smooth transition to an elected setup.  The adamancy of the Egyptian President in sticking to his position may be recorded by history as one of the reasons for the success of the insurgency. Prince von Metternich of Austria who dominated European politics in mid-nineteenth century warned, “When the ground shakes under governments, it is no good their trying to sit still; nature will not allow it.”

Mubarak sat smugly in his Presidency while the disgruntled public started gathering in Cairo’s Tehrir (Liberation) Square. The army, seeing the writing on the wall, was well advised not to use its armed might to suppress the insurgency; its sympathy lay with the protesters. The men in uniform, the conscripts in particular, regard themselves as defenders of the nation rather than instruments of repression.

Mubarak, therefore, ordered the security goons of his police to attack the unarmed people in the Square. They came riding on horses and camels, armed with weapons, and let loose a mayhem of death and destruction. The people in revolt managed somehow to catch and kill them; courage triumphed over fear – a clear indicator of the revolutionary passion.  Mubarak will still not concede power. He claims that his departure at this juncture will aggravate the chaos. He wants to stay till September when the next elections are to be held.  President Obama and Secretary Clinton have urged him to quit now.

Power, in the words of Henry Kissinger, is the most potent aphrodisiac, and Mubarak wants to hang on to it as long as possible.  Any excuse will serve a tyrant, said Aesop 2500 years back, and Voltaire added centuries later: Whoever has power in his hands wants to be despotic; the craze for domination is an incurable disease.

Mubarak by his stupid adamancy is not only inviting an end to his rule, if not his life itself, in a widespread bloodshed, but is also stirring the soul of the Arabs kept numb and docile by the monarchs and autocrats in the other Arab lands. The idea that the government is accountable to the people, is fast gaining ground. 

Mr. Mubarak has been in power for 30 years and the US has been doling out some $1.5 billion yearly to his government, mainly to strengthen its defense services.  In return, the Egyptian armed forces have helped Israel maintain its occupation of Gaza, and its domination of the Palestinian territory.  It has allowed American bases on Egyptian soil and prison facilities not subject to American laws and human rights.

The US has paid special attention to Egypt, since the country with its 80 million population is the largest of all 22 Arabic-speaking countries of the world, and is regarded as the seat of learning, art and culture to be emulated by others. Al Azhar has been for centuries the prime educational institution of the Muslim world. It provided even to the Ottoman Empire its sterling administrators.

The Arab world fragmented after Egypt signed, with US blessings, the peace deal with Israel. North African neighbors drifted away from Egypt. Iraq invaded Iran and Kuwait. Syria invaded Lebanon. 

If there is no smooth transition to a new leadership that will uphold the existing arrangements and agreements, a revolutionary shift of power might be detrimental to US interests in that region. It would mean an end of US ability to rely on Cairo to stave off Arab nationalism and Egypt’s role as a collaborator in the Israel occupation of Palestine, its virtual siege of Gaza.

Stirrings of popular dissent are already visible in Yemen and Jordan. All the other US-backed monarchies and pseudo-democracies across the region are haunted by the fear of a daunting future.

The protesters in Cairo and elsewhere have wisely concentrated on ousting first the ruling autocrat. They have meticulously avoided mention of their grievances against the US. There has been no attack on US embassy, no flag or effigy burning, no mention of the US arming Mubarak with the weapons killing protesters. These issues will figure on their agenda after the revolution is complete and they have a firm hold on power.

That explains the US anxiety for a quick, orderly and constitutional transition to a fresh team of rulers, but without any change in the basic rules of the game. Such a regime will give the taste of a change without annulling the agreements with the US and Israel made by the outgoing regime. A revolutionary government usually follows its own priorities and agenda. Likely, the US will witness a dissipation of its clout in Cairo. Yet it has wisely sided with the winning side -the protesters - lest it becomes a total loser by siding with Mubarak, an ally of 30 years standing. In foreign relations, there are no permanent friends, only permanent interests.

At the moment, Egypt’s streets belong to its people. They have shown an extraordinary unity in calling for a structural transformation and not just new elections, for real, participatory democracy and not just electoral reforms.

They have ignored with disdain the call of Omar Suleiman, a right-hand man of Mubarak, a long-standing friend of the US army and of Israeli high command, for a negotiated settlement of the uprising.

The Obama administration has taken a wise stand by siding with the Egyptian street. When people are in movement, they can seldom be stopped in their tracks by force. The US can retain bulk of its interests in the region without taking a clash with the revolutionaries.  It has military bases in Egypt, it pays off Egypt to guarantee its access to and effective control of the Suez Canal, and it relies on Egypt to carry out interrogation by any means necessary on detainees in the so-called “ global war on terror”. There might be some reservation about the last item, but all others are likely to remain intact in the new dispensation. Also, no regime, no matter how revolutionary, will say ‘no’ to the US aid of $1.5 billion yearly.

Obama administration is moving with history. It recognizes that the era of Washington calling the shots based on the exigencies of oil, Israel and the US version of stability, is definitely over.  People in Egypt and other Arab states will remember Obama as a great benefactor in that he sided with the common man and allowed autocrats of the Arab world to fall one by one making room for the rule of the people. His predecessor, George Bush, talked of democracy but promoted civil war and dictators.   Obama is trying to rectify the situation.

arifhussaini@hotmail.com