June 24, 2011
Turkish Leader Emerges with a Hat Trick in Elections
Turkey ’s charismatic leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, won a record third consecutive term for his Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the June 12 general elections in a highly strategic country in the East-West equation.
Turkey has emerged also as a key player in the Islamic world, particularly in its immediate and volatile neighborhood. The current pro-democracy movements in that region may draw inspiration from the way Turkey has emerged from its murky past of military coups, sent the army back to the barracks and embraced a democratic alternative to dictatorship and jackboot military rule. Over the past 10 years that he has been at the helm of affairs in Turkey, he has succeeded in bringing about an exemplary transformation of his country from a constant prey to military coups and economically a basket case to a proud and self-respecting polity registering a growth rate of 9%, second only to that of China. His political sagacity enabled him to sideline the Generals and entrench democracy.
By way of a contrast, we may examine the case of Pakistan, where an elected government is in power but it is steeped in corruption and thoroughly inept in governance. According to a document released by Wikileaks, even the President of the country seeks support of the US for security and completion of his tenure, as if he was in thrall to a foreign power! A senior member of the CNN disclosed that the Pak Prime Minister’s speech on the floor of the Parliament on the Abbottabad incident was drafted in the GHQ.
As for Mr. Erdogan’s agenda now, a new constitution is at the top of his list of priorities. Most Turks want to have a new constitution, since the current document was drafted after a 1980 military coup and lays down a highly centralized government with quite limited human rights. Erdogan makes no bones about his preference for a highly empowered Presidential system, one on the French pattern. Many see this as reflecting his proclivity for the concentration of powers in his own hands. But, not having a two-thirds clear majority in the Parliament, he may not succeed in such an ambition. He has won 326 seats in the 550-seat parliament, about 60% of the seats enough to form a government. But, he would need the backing of at least 330 members even to seek a referendum on the proposed constitution. He will therefore have to coalesce members of other parties who may not like to be a party to a move abridging their rights and freedom.
Erdogan has himself declared: “We will be seeking consensus with the opposition parties, the media, NGOs, academics, and anyone who has something to say.”
The strong showing of the Justice and Development Party also reflects the rise of a long-repressed class of conservative Sunni Muslims of Anatolia, who have supplanted the old army-backed elite as Turkey’s new masters. They are unlikely to endorse an attempt that imposes once again a repressive system under a palatable civilian garb. Fears about Erdogan’s suspected intention of concentrating powers in his own hands, are therefore open to question. Fears are also exaggerated about Turkey becoming an Islamist polity in league with Muslim Brotherhood and Iranian clerical hierarchy. That is just not possible considering the psyche of the Turks and their proclivities and historical experience.
Thanks to the fast economic growth, the per capita income in Turkey is now exceeding $10,000. Employment opportunities have expanded. Turkish labor does not have to travel to Germany to find work. Turkish zeal for joining the European Union may be slackening. But, Turkey’s candidacy for membership of the EU is unlikely to be withdrawn. Turkish application for membership has been most vehemently opposed by the Vatican, as the Pope regards Europe a Christian continent with no place for a Muslim society like Turkey. France and Germany have been in the forefront in opposing Turkey’s entry into the European Union.
arifhussaini@hotmail.com
