January 08, 2010
Obama’s Good Start
The first year of Obama’s presidency has been remarkably successful. After running on a platform of “change”, many of his critics, and some disappointed supporters, charge that there hasn’t been much “change”, and what has happened has been for the worse. But any fair-minded look at Obama’s record shows that he has a long list of major accomplishments.
The biggest success, and one which doesn’t get enough credit, is the turnaround in the economy. For most, this doesn’t seem that obvious yet, but compared to where we were at in January 2009, there has been a major turn. Back then the economy was shrinking at a terrifying 6% annual pace, and the global economy and world trade were collapsing. There was real fear of a true depression taking hold, a fear which accounts for the 20% plunge in the stock market from January to March. But Obama’s team did the hard work of stopping the plunge, stabilizing the credit and financial markets, saving the auto industry, and getting the economy out of its nosedive.
The politically contentious stimulus package has been working. In the second quarter of 2009 the economy stopped shrinking, and growth resumed at a slow pace in the third quarter. The fourth quarter should come in even better, and 2010 should have over 4% growth, which will help the Democrats next November. Stocks, which always try to look ahead, have rallied massively, with prices going up 50% from their March lows and over 20% for the year.
The economic record is not perfect. Obama underestimated how much unemployment would rise. He also does need to tackle the long-term issues of rising deficits and debt. Now is not the time to do that, as the economy remains weak, but in the next 12-18 months, he must show that he is serious in controlling the long-term picture.
Obama’s other huge accomplishment is health care reform. For 40 years Democrats have been trying to get universal healthcare in the US. Every attempt has been blocked, including Bill Clinton’s in 1993. But Obama has pulled it off despite 100% Republican opposition. This alone will put him in the history books. And just as Republicans once denounced Medicare and now run to defend it, they will change their tune on this issue in the future.
In anti-terror policies Obama has marked a refreshing and major change from Bush. He banned torture, and announced the closure of Guantanamo Bay prison. While the closure is taking longer than anticipated, Obama has clearly defused a major concern of the rest of the world. The failure of the Nigerian bomber to take down the Delta plane last week was a near-miss for Obama; if that attack had succeeded it would have been very damaging to Obama’s standing. It is always useful to be lucky on occasions.
In energy policy, Obama has also had major successes. He passed a major bill raising auto fuel standards and energy efficiency standards across the board. And he obtained a good working agreement with major emitters including China at the Copenhagen summit on Climate Change.
In foreign policy Obama has made the right calls so far. He is clear in his intent to pull out of Iraq in the next 18 months. Bush’s improved strategy of his last two years has pulled Iraq back from the brink, and Obama will reap the benefits. It is a pity it took so long for Bush to deal effectively with rebuilding Iraq; it cost years of tremendous bloodshed. Obama’s choice of adding forces to Afghanistan is one that I am uncertain of, its success will depend more on the strategies used to stabilize Afghanistan and the extent to which Pakistan is willing to squeeze the Taliban on their side of the border. But Obama has clearly changed the poisoned dynamic between the US and much of the Muslim world that existed under Bush. Obama has been trying hard on the Israeli-Palestinian issue, but so far without much to show for it. He has wisely refrained from overreacting to Iran’s nuclear program, and seems to be willing to contain Iran for now. The forces within Iran opposed to the regime seem to be gaining strength, and Obama is wise to let that road open up.
Overall, I would give Obama an A- for his first year. Not perfect, but certainly very, very good.
