November 11, 2011

Syria about to Experience the Arab Spring

 

The massive uprisings in the Arab world that have already toppled the long-standing and supposedly invincible dictators of Tunisia, Egypt and Libya have brought the authoritarian regimes in Syria, Yemen, and Bahrain to the brink of imminent collapse. President Bashar al-Assad, whose family has unilaterally ruled over Syria for over four decades, appears to be the next in line to fall. He has announced several reforms to blow off the steam of the protesters over the past eight months of massive protests demanding his exit. The protesters have remained adamant in their demand.

The November 3 peace deal between the Arab League and the Syrian government that calls for the withdrawal of security forces from the streets, release of prisoners who had been detained since last February, admit Arab monitors to enter the country, and Syrian regime to start negotiations with the protesters, had virtually a still birth. For, it was directly rejected by the opposition as a ruse to prolong the hold of the dictator over the country. Internationally, Assad has become a pariah. There is thus only one way for him to go-out.

Mass media - broadcast, print and the social media spawned by Internet - have played a major role in prompting an awakening among the people of the region. For instance, the Beijing Olympics, seen widely on Al-Jazeera, made the Arab youth wonder why they have to stagnate in poverty when China could progress to the extent of posing an economic challenge to the US. Social media, Facebook and Twitter in particular, have provided to the youth the facility of debate, discussion and arrival at consensus.

The transforming revolutionary powers of the media spare no region, no country or community. The media permeates a society in so many ways that information somehow reaches the people crossing all authoritative fences.

The main drivers of the unrest in the Middle East are poverty, rising prices, social exclusion, anger over corruption and personal enrichment among the political elite, a demographic bulge of young people unable to find work, and above all the loss of hope.

Neither repressions, nor bribes are likely to preempt the inevitable change – a change in basic structure that assures the youth that they could labor and live well, that opportunities will not be restricted to the progeny of the ruling oligarchy only.

This being the ground reality, all reactionary and radical institutions like Al Qaeda, Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas and Hizbullah, become irrelevant in the current march of events. They may have some nuisance, diversionary and catharsis value, but cannot lay a convincing claim on leadership. The fears of Israel and pro-Israel lobbies in the US are but flimsy. That does not mean that the emerging new leadership will don the mantel of subservience left behind by Hosni Mubarak or Ibne Ali. For, on the Palestine issue, Israel’s expansionist designs, and continued Jewish settlements on Palestinian lands lack the support of logic and justice. And, sooner or later, Israel will have to genuinely embrace the two states formula. As president Jimmy Carter has categorically stated in his book, Israel will not be a peaceful state as long as it practices apartheid against the Palestinians in its territories. Force becomes countervailing when not underpinned by logic, morality and justice.

In the Middle East turmoil, autocrats of Libya and Syria have resorted to brutal violence in their inordinate anxiety to suppress the insurgencies. Gadhafi’s ignominious end was seen throughout the world on TV screen.

Bashar al Assad, the current ruling autocrat of Syria, has been using his men in uniform to crush the uprising against him. He is reported to have already killed 3,000 of his protesting citizens. Thousands have crossed over to Turkey to escape his gendarmes.

When protests calling for reforms commenced early this year, he sounded amenable to popular demands. But, in mid-March his officials arrested about a dozen school-age children for painting anti-government graffiti in Dara’a, a town in the southeast. That outraged the citizens who took to the streets in protest. Demonstrations broke out throughout the country. Within days, government reneged on its promise not to use force against the protesters. Some 60 persons were killed on the very first day. This merely added strength to the opposition movement and deepened the crisis.

Assad did try initially to balance suppression and compromise, by offering some reform and lifting the emergency law while forbidding protests “under any banner whatsoever”. His true brutal nature came into the open. Many observers found him to be more ruthless than his father who had been at the helm of affairs for decades.

Officially, Syria is a republic, but in reality it is ruled by an authoritarian regime that exhibits only the forms of a democratic system. Hafiz Al-Asad was confirmed five times as President in unopposed referendums. Bashar, his son, too got himself appointed as President in a referendum. The voters had no alternative to consider. (Reminds one of the pretensions of Gen. Zia of being an elected President through a similar referendum).

Bashar Al-Assad and his senior aides, particularly those in the military and security services, make almost all basic decisions in political and economic life, with negligible public accountability. Political opposition to the President is not tolerated. The country has been in a state of emergency since 1963, till it was lifted a month after the agitation started, in a bid to appease the protesters.

Syria needs socio-economic and political reforms since the Assad regimes of both father and son for almost half a century have failed to improve the material living conditions of the people. The country has been in a state of war with Israel and that is presented as an excuse for the stagnation of the society. The ruling oligarchy belongs mainly to the Allawi (Shiite) sect while the majority of the population is Sunni. An overhaul of the political process is indicated to induct political plurality. A negotiated peace with Israel will enable Syria to get back Golan Heights and divert defense expenditure to the badly neglected socio-economic sectors.

Syria is inherently a very vibrant society. Its people are by and large forward-looking and aspire for a place under the sun. If a multi-party political system is introduced, instead of the current one-party (Ba’ath) rule, inherently liberal and progressive people are unlikely to allow much room to radical Islamic groups. Matter of fact, Al Qaeda, the Muslim Brotherhood and similar bodies have played no role in the current Arab uprisings. For, the agitations are not ideologically driven; they are mundane.

The Obama administration has slapped sanctions on President Assad and several senior officials for human rights abuses over their brutal crackdown on anti-government protests. The sanctions freeze any assets Assad and the officials have in US jurisdiction and make it illegal for Americans to do business with them.

The trend of events so far indicates that there is no possibility of Syria going back to the status quo ante. And the changes that appear inevitable will be in the interest of the people at large. They will break the barriers imposed on them by a string of ruthless autocrats, and pursue their dream of a more rewarding life where their efforts will bring forth the expected returns. That is the hope that the Arab Spring holds out. Bashar al-Assad is unlikely to succeed in dousing, through any subterfuge, the fire ignited by the badly repressed and deprived Syrian youth.

Arifhussaini@hotmail.com