January 06, 2012

Imran Khan: From Political Irrelevance to Center Stage

After 15 years of political irrelevance, Imran Khan has moved to the center of the political arena with his exceptionally large rallies in Lahore and Karachi. By any standard, he has become the most formidable challenger to the coalition government. A good number of eminent politicians of other parties have shifted to his side and joined the Pakistan Tahreek-e-Insaf (PTE) to reinforce the challenge.
The consensus of political analysts is that the two major ruling parties -PPP and Muslim League of Nawaz - are themselves chiefly responsible for the emergence of Imran Khan as an attractive alternative. Both have miserably failed to deliver on the promises they had made. People’s frustration has been rising chiefly because the rulers have been unable to maintain, if not augment, the supply of the basic necessities of life –potable water, gas, power, law and order, and livelihood, to mention some. The economy is in a total mess; its growth rate is at an all-time low, according to the State Bank itself. National airline, railways and the steel mills are tottering at the brink of bankruptcy. The current administration is perhaps the most incompetent in the history of Pakistan - also, the most corrupt!
In such a milieu of despondency, Imran Khan has given a call of hope, a call for a change of the antiquated system, which serves the ruling elite only – a disdainful kleptocracy masquerading as an elected democracy. The youth of the country have, no wonder, enthusiastically embraced his call. News channels, Internet and the social media, Facebook and Twitter, had kept them informed of the agitations in the Arab world, ignominious fall or near fall of several dictators, and the dawn of an era of hope and fulfillment nicknamed the ‘Arab Spring’. The widespread ‘Occupy Wall Street’ movement had also instigated in them an intense desire for a change. In short, Imran Khan appears to have articulated their frustrated feelings and their aspirations.
Imran’s track record substantiated their trust in him. His uncanny tenacity led Pakistan’s cricket team he captained to capturing the world Cup in 1992 - the only occasion that the country held the Cup. His relentless pursuit of the vision of a cancer hospital, with easy access to the indigent, found fulfillment in the setting up of a state of the art hospital in Lahore, and his dedication to education redounded in the emergence of a college in the vicinity of his hometown, Mianwali. Above all, he is not corrupt in a political culture where corruption is the dominating feature.
He set up Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) in 1996 but in the past 15 years, he remained a political non-entity. Only in one election he could get just himself elected from his home town Mianwali. His party was nicknamed the ‘tanga party,’ meaning a single ‘tanga’ (buggy) could accommodate his entire following. Khan’s party has no seat in the current Parliament.
What has then caused such an enormous change in the political stature of the cricket hero?
The situation on the ground, as described above, was ripe for some one to give a call for protest and change. Imran has grown in political maturity too and has kept on fighting for the downtrodden instead of calling it a day and resting on his laurels. His anti-American, anti-corruption rhetoric made him a populist sensation among the urban youth. He had all along opposed the drone attacks on Pakistani soil and had found fault with the policy of subservience to the US on the pretext of the war on terror.
US-Pakistan relations took a southward turn last year - 2011. One may trace it to the murder in Lahore on January 27 of two Pakistani young men by Raymond Davis, a CIA operator. This caused the first visible crack in the trust between the CIA and the ISI. On May 2, US stealth crafts landed surreptitiously in Abbotabad and killed Osama bin Laden. This widened the rift further as Pakistanis took it to be a breach of their sovereignty. On September 22, Gen. Mike Mullen accused the ISI of nurturing the Taliban and serving as the surreptitious arm of the army in this respect.
In October the story about the Memogate broke. It exposed to clear sight the chasm between Pakistan’s army and the civilian leadership. The United States supported, directly or indirectly, the civilian government. On November 26, NATO forces attacked Pakistan’s check-posts in Mohmand agency at the border with Afghanistan.
The US decided to choke the flow of aid to Pakistan’s military. The US had decided to wind up the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and strengthen instead the elected governments.
Pakistan’s army could neither acquiesce into accepting in practice the status of the civilian head of state as the supreme commander of the armed forces, nor resort to military takeover of the country, as that would have receded further the possibility of the restoration of US military aid and created problems of recognition by the Western world. So, they had to find a via media. Imran Khan was the answer. Almost all Pakistani analysts are agreed that Imran has the support of the “establishment” – a euphemism for the army.
Be that as it may, Imran Khan is still the best bet, within the existing constraints, for the future of Pakistan. At least he is not corrupt; he is not a grabber but a giver; he says what he means; he is sanguine about the future of the country; and he has shown his mettle and leadership qualities as the captain of his cricket team and the builder of the cancer hospital against so many odds and hurdles.
Would he succeed in getting himself elected to the top executive office of the country?
The foremost weakness of his party is that it does not have its offices throughout the country like the PPP or the PML(N). In the absence of that ineluctable infrastructure/base, it has to rely on the support of the political families of the country. That is where the rub is. For, that would circumscribe Imran Khan’s efforts for a basic change in the system, which has hampered progress, particularly the expansion of educational facilities, since the inception of the country.
He might, nevertheless, be able to reduce the current anguish of the common man to keep body and soul together. And, he might be able to launch long-gestation projects shunned by the self-seeking current leadership. Above all, he might be able to give a comparatively clean and accountable administration to the people. That would add to the sense of security of the people and increase the rapport between the rulers and the ruled. Despite the daunting constraints, he might be able to achieve a lot for the welfare of the badly hurting people.
Would he be able to win the requisite number of seats in the Assembly on the basis of his charisma only? Would he be able to overcome the weaknesses of PTI within a year or so before the elections? That is the sixty-four dollar question! Given the will, focus and determination, what looks impossible now may turn out to be just a little more difficult than possible. Let us keep our fingers crossed.
I wish you all a bright and prosperous New Year.
arifsyedhussaini@Gmail.com 1-714-345-2654