April 01 , 2011

 

The Arab Awakening

 

The phenomenon of Arab uprisings initially thought by many to be a

mere passing phase, if not a damp squib, has already toppled two well-entrenched autocrats and is shaking up from their roots several others in the region. What is happening now in the Arab world may turn out to be one of the most significant developments of the 21st century.

A revolutionary zeal has engulfed the entire region that had been languishing for long in backwardness, deprivation and utter frustration. An extraordinary tempest has hit the ruling elites who had usurped all power and pelf leaving the people at large with no hope of a change in their station. Sooner or later the tempest will sweep out the obnoxious rulers and usher in the prospect of a new order responsive to the aspirations of the downtrodden. The Arab world would enter sunshine after a century of darkness and decadence.

The derogators of the current strife would like to present it as emanating from the greed of the West to capture the oil wells of the region. The concept finds support in the motive for the invasion of Iraq by the Bush administration. That may be a valid point, but only marginally in the context of the ongoing unrest in the Arab world. Considering the technological monopoly of the West over exploration, extraction, refining, installation of pipelines and distribution of oil, it doesn’t have to stretch itself to this extent to secure some thing that is already within its reach.

No wonder then that John A Boehmer, Speaker of the US House of Reps, had to ask President Obama to clarify how the mission in Libya “is consistent with the US policy goals”.

The US foreign policy has two major goals in the Arab world: To ensure the security of Israel, and to eliminate the influence of Al Qaeda. No doubt, the dictators of the region were more pliant than elected, accountable and transparent governments. But, any Arab-Israel agreement on peace in the Middle East would be abiding if backed by the endorsement of elected governments. Al Qaeda thrives on poverty, lack of opportunities to the youth, and general frustration. The outcome of the current crises is likely to largely eliminate these factors reducing the attraction of Al Qaeda to the youth of the region.

The Obama administration came in for a lot of criticism for supporting the uprisings and working assiduously for the UN Security Council resolution on the No-Fly Zone in Libya and for taking the lead in aerial attacks on Libyan strategic formations. He was accused of having authorized the war without consulting formally the Congress.

A weighty argument was that the country could hardly afford to engage in another conflict in a Muslim country after getting bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan, with the state’s finances already in deep red. That explains the dithering of President Obama from entry into the conflict in Libya. The US has therefore relinquished quickly the command of the operation in Libya to European allies.

The strife in the Arab world is not dying down as predicted by some commentators; it is escalating. The situation on the day this column was written (March 25) is briefly as follows.

LIBYA: Fighting continues. Gaddafi’s officials try to cultivate the media. President Gaddafi’s 42-year old hold on the country has not loosened; his anti-West rhetoric has escalated. Coalition officials have invited a group of rebel leaders to London to meet world leaders next week at their two-day conference to bolster international support to their cause. President Obama will address the nation March 28 evening to give a clear explanation of his decision to involve US forces in the conflict.

YEMEN: The embattled President, Ali Saleh, has opened negotiations with the protesters over the time and conditions for the end of his 32-year rule. He was hit by a wave of defections among his Generals, some of the Yemeni ambassadors, and several tribal and religious leaders. Maj-Gen. Al-Ahmar, who had abandoned the President a week back and is the most senior army officer, is representing the opposition. The general feeling is that President Saleh’s days are numbered; but, he wants to decide the number himself.

SYRIA: Its repressive leadership came under heavy pressure on March 24 when thousands of angry demonstrators massed again in the southern city of Dara’s, near Jordanian border, demanding democratic reforms. President Bashar al-Assad, unaccustomed to concessions, announced a series of reforms including the lifting of the emergency rule clamp down the nation for 48 years.

JORDAN: Over a thousand pro-democracy demonstrators set up a tent camp in the center of Amman, the capital, in a deliberate imitation of the Tahrir Square of Cairo. They vowed to remain there until they saw real change, including an end to corruption, autocratic rule and economic discrimination.

BAHRAIN: Thousands of Bahrainis came out on March 25 for a Friday sermon of a major Shiite cleric in defiance of the ban on such public gatherings imposed under martial law.

The above reports were culled from just one day’s news stories; that underlines the significance of the developments in a historical perspective.

The shape of things to follow the successful termination of the uprisings may vary from country to country. But, in all cases the cooped up energies of the youth will find an expression and they will discover the charm of a life where their labors will be adequately rewarded. The era of inequalities, inept governance, chronic corruption, and widespread cronyism will be behind them. Radical Islamists like Al Qaeda, Islamic Brotherhood, Jamat-i-Islami, Islamic Salvation Front, Islamic Jehad, will try to step into the openings but their conspicuous absence during the agitations will disqualify them in the eyes of the youth for any significant role. The radical Islamic setups are too conservative, too exclusive, and too backward-gazing to meet the ambitions of the youth of the region who want to be at par with the youth of the world. After enduring the rigors of the revolutions and nurturing positive images of the future, they are more likely to abhor the very thought of going back into the cocoon of the ill-informed Mullah who excels in negativity.

To survive and thrive in the modern world, they will have to acquire the education, technologies, norms and mores of a globalized world. I am sanguine that they will, once their current agitations remove the shackles on their will to labor and live well.

arifhussaini@hotmail.com