September 02 , 2011

Libyan Revolution Ushers in an Era of Hope and Happiness

 

We are fortunate to be able to witness the massive restructuring of socio-political setups in the Arab world that had been stagnating for decades under tyrannical dictators whose sole aim had been self-aggrandizement. A student of history finds a comparable parallel in the widespread revolutions that engulfed Europe in 1848 and which demanded a place under the sun for the common people including slaves.

Lenin had observed, “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen”. What is happening within a span of weeks now in the Middle East and North Africa will shape the direction of history there for decades to come. From the corrupt dictatorships of the Arab world is emerging a group of reborn nations who can hope to enter into sunlit uplands with hearts pulsating with hope.

To preempt the growing pressure, the ruling potentates started talking in the language of reform. The king of Jordan sacked his prime minister for the delay in the carrying out of reforms. The king of Morocco almost doubled the official subsidies for food and cooking gas. The Saudi king announced $36 billion giveaways in benefits to the poor and middle-income families.

Libya’s Gaddafi ordered his mercenary troops to suppress the revolt ruthlessly. Also, he awarded $400 per family. But neither repression, nor bribes have pacified the youth who crave a system that allows them to labor and live well. Therefore, change in the entire region appears ineluctable. Only those will survive in the turmoil that avoid meticulously going against the trend of history. Hosni Mubarak of Egypt and Ibne Ali of Tunisia did that and became history. Gaddafi, an eccentric megalomaniac, who had been in power for 42 years, has followed them and stands dethroned.

He is said to be hiding, like Saddam Hussein, in some hole in Tripoli or elsewhere. There is a reward of two million dollars on his head. He was running Libya like a personal fiefdom with members of his family and tribe, who see the writing on he wall and may continue putting up resistance to the advent of a new regime. Gaddafi will not therefore quit and fade into oblivion

like the autocrats of Tunisia and Egypt, though the common citizens will shed few tears for him. He had given them mainly endless suffering and misery. It was therefore the genuine revolt of the people against his despotic rule that caused his downfall, although their struggle was considerably buttressed by the aerial bombings of NATO forces targeting his mercenary troops.

With the full scale fighting in Libya coming to an end, the focus now is on the shape of thing to come in post-Gaddafi period. Unfortunately, Libya does not have, like Tunisia and Egypt, the basic structure of government to enable the revolutionaries to immediately step into the seats of power and concentrate on building a progressive, responsive and democratic polity. The country is riven by traditional tribal rivalries and various factions have joined hands in their dislike of Gaddafi rule. The rebels united in their hatred of Gaddafi, may splinter in victory. Libya has no political party like the Baath to directly assume power.

The National Transition Council, set up last February in Benghazi, an eastern city far removed from the capital, Tripoli, and recognized by some European powers as the legitimate claimant to govern the country, is the only face of the opposition that may assume the reins of power. The new leadership, striving to maintain the unity among opposition ranks, will face three main immediate challenges: to establish a broadly inclusive and representative transitional governing body; address immediate security risks; and find an appropriate balance between the search for accountability and justice and the imperative of avoiding arbitrary score-settling and revenge. Then there is the likely scramble for Libya’s oil wealth that may soon ensue complicating an already volatile situation.

Granted that Libya faces a host of severe challenge, but the country

has certain basic assets that hold out the hope of a throbbing, thriving society replacing the tribal backwardness, general apathy and inaction of the Gaddafi era. The most important of these is a youthful population whose cooped up energies were waiting to be unleashed to ditch Gaddafi’s myopic precepts and join the modern world. Their victory in the armed struggle has charged them with the zeal to keep marching ahead from victory to victory in pursuit of their dream of a prosperous and thriving society. Their total population is a 6.4 million only, less than half of Karachi.

Their second most important asset comprises their oil wealth. Although Libya ranks 17 th among global oil exporters, its 46.4 billion barrel proven reserves make it the largest in Africa. Then, its crude oil is one of the best in quality as its sulfur content is quite low. Its daily production till the outbreak of agitations six months back was 1.5 million barrels a day giving an annual income of around $50 billion. Almost the entire income went into the coffers of Gaddafi, his family and members of his oligarchy. The country became uniquely dependent on only one source of income. The people at large remained therefore deprived of engaging in other sectors of the economy to improve their lot. They sought security through their tribal affiliations; so, they firmly embraced those links. Thus oil, instead of accruing to them an upward mobility, stuck them in the swamp of ignorance and deprivation.

Under a new dispensation now, oil wealth distribution is likely to be made more equitable underpinning the much-needed political and economic reforms in the country. Once the other sectors of the economy start pulsating, the youth will find employment and the opportunities to enter various educational avenues to sharpen further their skills and join the ranks of bread- winners.

According to media reports, the Libyan National Transition Council has already done extensive planning for a post-conflict period on how to maintain law and order, how to secure national assets, when to resume oil production, what to do about Gaddafi loyalists and former officials. The council plans to arrange general elections in six to eight months.

The Gaddafi and family accounts in the banks of Libya ($60 billion), the assets frozen in Europe and the US under a UN mandate ($150 bn) will become available to the transitional government to set up a working machinery, including security services to protect a stable and egalitarian society.

The international community is now launching the battle for the reconstruction of Libya. The French President has already convened a conference in Paris to help post-Gaddafi Libya. Some 35 countries including China, Russia, India and Brazil are attending it.

The outcome of the Libyan narrative compliments the policy of President Obama of no direct involvement, a refreshing change from the US interventions and occupations of the past putting the economy in debt of trillions. What the country has spent on the Libyan campaign is estimated to have cost what the war in Iraq cost on a single day.

arifsyedhussaini@Gmail.com