September 19, 2025
While the Israelis and Palestinians have come close on two separate occasions to a final deal (at Taba in 2001 and Annapolis in 2007), there have been no real negotiations in over 15 years. The two main stumbling blocks are the Palestinian refugees right of return, and the fate of the Jewish settlements built on the West Bank and home to 700,000 people, about 10% of Israel’s Jewish population
The Road to Palestine Goes through the White House
We are now coming upon the two-year anniversary of the start of the Hamas-Israel war, and the consequences are plain to see. For the Palestinians in Gaza there has been thorough and complete destruction of the homes, offices, hospitals, mosques, and businesses at the hand of the Israeli military. Over 60,000 Palestinians have died. All this death and destruction have achieved nothing for the Palestinians, which just underscores how pointless and nihilistic Hamas’ decision to go to war on October 7, 2023, was.
Hamas still holds about 45 hostages, half of whom are just the dead remains, but Israel wants all of them returned. Despite its overwhelming military superiority, Israel has not been able to locate and free these remaining hostages, who are likely underground in Hamas tunnels.
The obvious solution to ending this current war is for Hamas to agree to a permanent ceasefire in exchange for Israel getting its hostages and pulling its military forces out of Gaza and back to the 1967 border. But it is not that easy. Israel does not want a repeat of October 7 in another two or five years. It therefore wants full control of Gaza’s borders, including the short segment that abuts Egypt and was the site of smuggling tunnels that gave Hamas the ability to build the missiles and other weapons it has used in this war. Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu is also demanding that Gaza be run by some entity other than Hamas or the Palestinian Authority currently confined to the West Bank cities.
He desperately wants to keep Gaza and the West Bank divided as that suits his purpose of avoiding any real negotiations to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in a truly comprehensive fashion. Hamas has offered to turn over the administration of Gaza to unaffiliated technocrats, but Israel has refused that offer too. It’s completely opaque as to what Netanyahu thinks is a workable solution. UN peacekeepers are off the table, no nation would send troops to police Gaza, nor would any of the regional Arab players like Egypt or Saudi Arabia.
The fact that Hamas is now offering a ceasefire in exchange for a return to the situation before October 7, 2023, and that they agree to return the hostages, raises the obvious question. Why did they carry out the attack in the first place? Wouldn’t any rational Palestinian have quickly pointed out how self-destructive this act would be? Given how disproportionate Israel’s response has been in response to previous Hamas attacks, shouldn’t the Hamas leadership realized that the brazen and massive nature of the October 7 attack would lead to an overwhelming Israeli response that would level Gaza and kill tens of thousands of Palestinians? Netanyahu is an obvious enemy of the Palestinians, and it is hard to think of anyone who has done more harm to the Palestinian quest for freedom than he has, but Hamas would certainly have to be considered his equal in that. Without Hamas, the Oslo Process would likely have succeeded, and a two-state solution would have been realized in the 1990’s.
To get to peace at this point would be extremely difficult. While a majority of Israelis and Palestinians in theory support a two-state solution, there is great fear on both sides of what the reality would mean. For Israel, does it mean living with a West Bank that will behave like Gaza and attack Israel at its first opportunity? For the Palestinians is “two-states” really only “one and half states” where the West Bank is carved up into little islets and Israel retaining control of airspace, water, and roads in and out?
To cut this Gordion Knot, it will take an American President willing to use the full power of the US across all spectrums from economic to diplomatic to moral. Palestine as a state has already been recognized by 160 nations, most recently France and Australia. The UK, Canada, and Belgium also appear to be on the cusp of recognition. While these official recognitions do not change the facts on the ground much, it is a strong indicator of world public opinion that Israel’s continued subjugation of the Palestinian people is intolerable.
While President Trump is a firm supporter of Israel, perhaps the next US President will be more willing to push the two sides into a deal. While the Israelis and Palestinians have come close on two separate occasions to a final deal (at Taba in 2001 and Annapolis in 2007), there have been no real negotiations in over 15 years. The two main stumbling blocks are the Palestinian refugees’ right of return, and the fate of the Jewish settlements built on the West Bank and home to 700,000 people, about 10% of Israel’s Jewish population.
The Palestinian refugees have a right of return based on UN General Assembly Resolution 194. But almost all the refugees who fled in 1947-1949 are now dead. Does the right of return extend to their children and grandchildren? If so, that would mean over 3 million Palestinians who are descended from the 700,000 expelled in the 1940’s. For Israel to be a democracy and a Jewish state, it cannot accept all these Palestinians. Such an outcome would not be two states, one majority Jewish and the other Palestinian, instead it would be one Palestinian majority state and another Palestinian state. The Jews of Israel would never accept such an outcome.
On the other hand, Israel’s government is in the clutches of right-wing hardliners who are closely connected to the settler movement. For them to give up the settlers would be anathema. This attachment to the settlements makes no sense. The settlements are not on particularly holy sites; they have been put up randomly across the West Bank. To clear them out would require the Jewish settlers to move 5 or 10 or 15 miles at the most. Given that Jews moved thousands of miles to create Israel it is hardly asking too much for 10% of them to move a few miles.
To get peace an American President needs to make clear to both sides what the parameters of a final deal are. The Palestinian refugees will not get a right of return but will have to make do with financial compensation. Israel will have to pull its settlers out, just as it pulled out settlers from Sinai when it made peace with Egypt or pulled out settlers from Gaza when Ariel Sharon decided to withdraw from Gaza and give up direct Israeli rule.
The Palestinians are in a much weaker position and will accept such a deal, as long as they get the West Bank and East Jerusalem and not see it chopped up into pieces. Israel, especially a right-wing Israeli government, will fiercely resist this deal. Without a strong push from the White House, this festering sore, punctuated by episodes of terror and war, will continue.
