January 12, 2024
ABC News
Trump’s Legal Woes
Donald Trump continues to dominate the Republican party and with the Iowa Caucus and then the New Hampshire primary just around the corner, he looks set to win both easily. The last-ditch efforts of Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, and Chris Christie are falling far short of stopping Trump’s march to the nomination. General election polls are mixed, but several show Trump currently leading Biden. After the shambles in which Trump left the White House three years ago it is stunning that he might actually get himself reelected next November.
What does stand in his way is a whole host of legal challenges. It’s worth looking at them more closely to see how much jeopardy Trump is in. Trump has already been found liable for rape of E. Jean Carroll in a civil trial and ordered to pay 5 million dollars in restitution. He continued to deny the charge and slander Ms. Carroll in the media, and is about to face a second trial in New York for additional civil damages against her. The Democrats will absolutely hammer Trump for being found liable for rape once the general election gets going.
Trump is also currently on trial in New York for business fraud related to how he valued his properties and extracted cheap loans from banks based on fraudulent statements of assets. That trial is wrapping up and a judgment is expected in the next few weeks, with the NY Attorney General asking for a 380 million dollar fine to disgorge ill-gotten profits, and a permanent ban on Trump doing business in New York. The trial so far has featured very strong evidence against Trump, and he is likely to lose.
Civil trials, however, are not the same as criminal trials. There you can be accused of felonies that result in jail time. Trump is facing four separate criminal trials with a total of 91 felony charges. Two of the trials are Federal cases, and two are state cases. The case that is scheduled to go to trial first is the case related to January 6 th and Trump’s attempt to steal the election. This case is supposed to start in early March and is being prosecuted by the Special Prosecutor Jack Smith. Trump is doing everything he can to delay this case, and is currently arguing in front of the DC Court of Appeals that a President cannot be criminally charged for anything he does while in office. This is absurd. Could President Biden order Seal Team 6 to assassinate Trump? Could a President sell pardons or take bribes and not be subject to criminal prosecution? The DC Court appeared extremely skeptical of Trump’s claims and will likely deny. Trump may then try to appeal to the Supreme Court as a way to delay the trial further. But it is going to be pretty hard for him to delay the trial all the way to November.
The other Federal case is the confidential and top-secret documents that Trump basically stole from the White House and was keeping at Mar A Lago as souvenirs. This case is pretty open and shut from a factual standpoint and could go forward later this summer. What might save Trump is that the judge in this case was appointed by Trump and she has shown she is willing to do anything to help Trump’s case. She might be able to delay this case past November.
Trump is also facing a criminal trial in Georgia, where he attempted to steal the Georgia election by getting election workers to “find” over 11,000 votes that would give him victory. This trial is scheduled for the summer, and Trump is going to have a hard time delaying it, as it is in state court and not Federal, so he cannot appeal to the Supreme Court to block the case for him.
Finally, Trump is facing a criminal fraud case in New York related to the hush money he paid to Stormy Daniels, the adult film actress, to keep her quiet before the 2016 election about their relationship. This case is ready to go to trial as soon as there is space in the calendar. With four criminal cases all needing several weeks each for trial, the scheduling is a challenge.
Trump needs to run out the clock. If he can get to November and win the election, he can then enjoy Presidential immunity for four years, putting all the criminal cases on hold. But if Trump does end up facing justice, a conviction will be devastating for him and the Republicans. He will still be the Republican nominee, and he is too much of a narcissist to step aside if that happened. He will take the Republican party down with him. Biden would win the election by more than 10 points. Republicans in close Senate and House races will be faced with a tough choice. Do they continue to endorse and support Trump after conviction? In which case many normal and moderate Republicans will abandon them and not show up to vote or vote Democrat. On the other hand, if the candidates abandon Trump and withdraw their endorsements and support, the hard core MAGA base that will remain with Trump to the bitter end will turn on them and withhold their support, costing the GOP a number of close House and Senate races.
Biden needs to run a campaign that focuses on disqualifying Trump. Getting him convicted in court will make that immensely easier.
